Vendee Globe 2012 form guide

We take a more mathematical look at who might do well in the solo non-stop round the world race

This article is best viewed in Firefox or IE

In these cash strapped times, it is rare to come across a yacht race where the size of the fleet ends up exceeding even the most optimistic predictions. But such is the nature of the Vendee Globe that here in Les Sables d’Olonne, prior to Saturday's start, there are an impressive 20 entries. Of these, six are new generation (ie built since the last race) while 11 were new for 2008.

This year there are six nations represented, the bulk of course being French, or 12 of the 20. Beyond this there are two (Stamm and Wavre) from Switzerland, three (Thomson, Golding and Davies) from the UK, and one apiece from Spain (Sanso) Italy (di Benedetto) and, for the first time, Poland (Gutkowski). While in every Vendee Globe since 1996 there have been two female competitors, this year Sam Davies is the only one.

While there are only five ‘rookies’ setting out tomorrow on their first ever Vendee Globe, interestingly 11 of the 20 have yet to complete a Vendee Globe. In other word, six have set out before, but have yet to complete the singlehanded non-stop around the world race. The worst track record in this respect is Bernard Stamm, who may have won two Around Alones/Velux 5 Oceans, but had to retire from the 2000 and 2008 Vendee Globes and after all but destroying his boat in the 2004 Transat, was unable to compete in that year’s race. In comparison Alex Thomson has had to pull out twice, as has Bertrand de Broc.

Of the 11 that have yet to complete a Vendee Globe, four have successfully sailed around the world before. Among these the most capped is Bernard Stamm, who in addition to his two Around Alone/Velux 5 Oceans wins counts a non-stop lap with Bruno Peyron aboard Orange II when they set a new Jules Verne Trophy time in 2005. Hugo Boss skipper Alex Thomson made it around non-stop doublehanded on an IMOCA 60 with Andrew Cape in the first Barcelona World Race, as did Javier Sanso, sailing on Mutua Madrileña (ex-Ecover II) with Pachi Rivero (now part of Acciona’s shore team). Zbigniew Gutkowski, who is racing Energa, the Finot-Conq designed former Hugo Boss he acquired at the 11th hour, has made it around twice, once as a watch captain on the Polish entry in The Race, Warta Polpharma (ex Jet Services V, Commodore Explorer), and most recent he came a very creditable second in the last Velux 5 Oceans.

Another observation is that the average age of the skippers is getting higher - six are in their 50s this time around.

Vendee Globe and round the world race track record, by age

With our form guide this year we have attempted to be a more scientific, although as ever it has been a case of trying to rig the numbers to align with your gut feeling. For example we haven’t managed to find a way of bumping the talented young skipper of MACIF, Francois Gabart, up our ranking. While he may be a first timer and score low on experience, he has had (and still has) as his mentor double Vendee Globe winner Michel Desjoyeaux. Having Le Professeur at the end of the phone when the going gets tough will certainly counts for points.

Equally Marc Guillemot at his press conference this morning said that the outstanding fine that is hanging over him after he violated the traffic separation schemes around the British Isles during a record attempt earlier this year, has been causing him sleepless nights for past three weeks. How to factor that in?

One of the most illuminating tables (below) shows the results for each of the boats in the major races over the course of this Vendee Globe four year cycle along wiht the breakage each has sustained. This table does not reflect damage sustained during a race, where the boat still managed to finish.

This shows that Marc Guillemot's Safran is the most reliable having achieved a result in four races (and also bearing in mind that Guillemot scored a third place in the last Vendee Globe, albeit without a keel - the bulb fell off shortly before the line). Jean-Pierre Dick's Cookson-built Virbac-Paprec 3 also has a good record, let down by a small, but serious issue with the hydraulic ram for her keel during the Europa Warm-Up this year. Also worth observing is that since Banque Populaire took over Michel Desjoyeaux's latest Foncia, she has had a 100% finish rate.

Conversely if you think Alex Thomson has had an 'unlucky' streak, check out the race record for Kito de Pavant and Groupe Bel. Bear in mind this follows retirement from the 2008 Vendee Globe when the red laughing cow boat dismasted very early on.

Statistically in the Vendee Globe old generation boats have a better track record than new boats. In 2008, for example, when there were an unprecidented 18 new boats among the 30 starters, only five finished (or 27%), compared to six of the 12 older generation boats (50%).

Race results and damage in major IMOCA class events over the last four years

NB: Figure in brackets indicate that someone other than the present skipper was responsible for the result

Reliability

There is no question that the Vendee Globe is first and foremost a war of attrition. Statistically over the last six races on average only 50% of boats have finished, although when the weather is worse, as was the case in the 1996-7 race (when there was also a sorry spate of boats capsizing and remaining inverted) then there are more casualties:

In the table below we have attempted to come up with a number indicating the 'reliability' of each boat.

This includes the 'race reliability' factor from the table above, plus we have scored the boats according to their equipment. For example statistically a three spreader fixed mast has a better track record in the Vendee Globe than a wingmast and deck spreader rig. Similarly a forged steel keel is generally felt to be the safest option compared to fabricated steel or carbon (although there are many examples of both that have been problem-free).

Vital to reliability is of course the quality of the preparation, not just in terms of time and money but also the quality of the people involved.

And there is of course nothing like sea miles to iron out any bugs. Jean-Pierre Dick, skipper of Virbac Paprec 3, for example goes into this Vendee Globe having sailed the equivalent of twice around the planet (in fact half of this was when he competed in and won the last Barcelona World Race).

So - who will win?

Our feeling, and those of most race pundits here in Les Sables d'Olonne, is that Armel le Cleac'h and Banque Populaire are favourites. Le Cleac'h finished second in 2008 in a boat that wasn't exceptional, but now he has an exceptional boat in the last Foncia which Michel Desjoyeaux developed for himself. In France, alongside Groupama, Banque Populaire is biggest and best funded sailing team and since January when they secured the Jules Verne Trophy for themselves thanks to the efforts of Loick Peyron and the crew of their 40m trimaran, the whole team has refocussed its attention on their IMOCA 60. While the boat had a few structural issues - a rather substantial crack around the hull, plus bulkheads breaking due the flexing of the hull in the bow during the transatlantic races last autumn - these have now been resolved by the team that developed the world's largest and most sophisticated offshore racing trimaran.

However Le Cleac'h is followed (on equal points) by Jean-Pierre Dick. This is Dick's third Vendee Globe campaign following a sixth place in 2004 and then being aboard one of the Farr boats to succumb to rudder problems in the last race. His latest boat has been constructed at Cookson, builder of all Team New Zealand's boats and following his experience in 2008-9 he has a package that is both fast but conservative enough to give her skipper the best possible chance of making it around the course.

Marc Guillemot's Safran with her unique titanium keel ("a piece of jewellry" as Mike Golding describes it) is third on our hit parade. We don't feel that Marc is the fastest of the skippers, but is fast enough. Also his boat is not new generation. However she was thought to be the lightest boat in the 2008 race, and she also carries some spectacular technology. Apart from her keel, this includes a carbon fibre mast track that is bonded to the mast (we'll be looking at the latest technical gizmos on Safran in due course). In particular Guillemot and Safran score highly as they have shown great reliability (as indicated in our tables above). If there is one boat that should make it around the course on the basis of past form it will be her. 

For the first time, Alex Thomson features higher in our Vendee Globe form guide than Mike Golding. In fact the British skipper can be spoken about in the same way as Jeremie Beyou - both start this Vendee Globe older and wiser than they were four years ago. Beyou has shoehorned in his second Solitaire win since his not-so-flash first IMOCA 60 campaign with Delta Dore. He returns with Maitre Coq, Michel Desjoyeaux's race winning Foncia from 2008-9, a boat that has shown an exemplary record having finished all the races she's started, the only blemish in her sailing credentials being a dismasting earlier this year.

The word everyone is using to describe Hugo Boss skipper Alex Thomson this time around is 'mature'. Since his disastrous last race, when he was rammed by a French fishing boat inbound into Les Sables d'Olonne before the start (and after a record speed repair and just making the start, his boat was subsequently holed crossing the Bay of Biscay) Alex has got married and had a child and we suspect it is this, along with being four years older and wiser, that has caused this change in him. Also Thomson cut his teeth on Roland Jourdain's first Lombard-designed Sill and seems to be back in an equally happy place with the boat which, as BT, Seb Josse skippered in the last race and Roland Jourdain sailed to his second Route du Rhum victory in 2010 as Veolia Environnement.

After finishing third in the 2004 Vendee Globe, Mike Golding suffered a dismasting in the 2008 race, and after losing part of his rig in the Velux 5 Oceans and the rig again falling over when Ecover 3 was chartered to Jean le Cam as Renault for the last Barcelona World Race, so the British offshore legend has thrown in the towel with rotating wingmasts. Now Gamesa has a robust looking fixed mast, one of Future Fibres' first, while modifications have been made to the cockpit and cabintop, optimising the boat for singlehanding.

Sceptics are saying that Golding has slightly lost 'the fire in his belly', but we suspect that once he's out on the race course, he will be more than capable of finishing on the podium, even winning (remember he had just pulled into the lead in 2008 when his mast came down...) Gamesa is also the only boat in this race with an interceptor on her transom, allowing her to have more rocker in her hull and thus a weapon in light conditions.

Vincent Riou's PRB, we predict, will be leading the Vendee Globe as the boats charge south down the Atlantic. But how far will he make it? The 2004 Vendee Globe winner is believed to have the lightest boat in the fleet at around 7.2 tonnes (the next closest being Banque Populaire and Safran at 7.5 tonnes). As one of the shore crew on MACIF told us: "I would say the tube of PRB weighs 200kg and it is 30% less stiff than our mast laterally and 15-20% less stiff longitudinally. For example you know if you save 30kg on the mast, imagine how much weight you can save on the keel. For example for the hull scantlings, they have one layer of carbon less everywhere." Apparently when PRB goes sailing with more than one crew they have to put an extra board into the cockpit to help spread the weight... 

PRB has proved one of the regularly fastest boats in training in Port la Foret and she would be top of our list were it not for the question mark hanging over her - due to her light weight if there is one of the new boats which on paper shouldn't make it around the world, it is her. However Vincent Riou is certainly aware of this, he is a past winner and his technical knowledge is second to none among the skippers.

Bernard Stamm is a slight unknown. While, in his new Juan K-designed Cheminées Poujoulat, he has what on paper should be one of the fastest boats in the fleet, his campaign suffered a monumental set back when his brand new boat collided with an unidentified floating object during the Transat Jacques Vabre last autumn to the north of the Azores and was all but sunk. After abandoning the boat, Stamm recovered it and had it shipped back to France where she was repaired over the winter. However this has all eaten into his valuable time developing the boat. Having huge form stability, if Cheminées Poujoulat proves reliable and makes it down the Atlantic we suspect she will prove to be the fastest boat through the Southern Ocean.

Jean le Cam is another dark horse. Having finished second in the 2004 race and then losing the keel of his yacht off Cape Horn four years ago, le Cam is one of three triple Solitaire du Figaro winners (along with Desjoyeaux and Philippe Poupon) and is thus considered a titan among singlehanded sailors. It is worth bearing in mind that le Cam as been around - while Desjoyeaux did the Whitbread with Eric Tabarly on La Poste, and Roland Jourdain was part of the Cote d'Or crew in 1985, le Cam sailed with the great man in the 1981 Whitbread...more than 30 years ago. This time he is sailing a good boat in Loick Peyron's former Gitana Eighty, which since getting the sponsorship, admittedly quite late, from SynerCiel, he has fitted with a new mast and keel.

The great young hope of French solo offshore racing is former Figaro sailor Francois Gabart, who, as mentioned, is the protege of Michel Desjoyeaux. MACIF is a sistership of Banque Populaire with all of the potential and Gabart's results since launching his new boat last year, show he has the potential to win races. Experience counts for a lot in the Vendee Globe, which he lacks, and this is why he is not as high as many believe he should be in our ranking. But Gabart has a wise head on his 29-year-old shoulders and with the greatest offshore sailor of all time coaching him, he is sure to put in a good result if he goes the distance.

As a skipper Sam Davies has the potential to win the Vendee Globe as she amply demonstrated four years ago when she sailed the 2000 and 2004 winning boat to an impressive fourth place, a substantially better result than anyone could have imagined pre-start. She is relatively low in our form guide once again due to the vintage of her latest boat Saveol - formerly Roland Jourdain's 2004 generation Veolia Environnement. However Sam has the nouse to go the distance and we can expect another solid result from her this time and perhaps even another form-busting performance.

Arnaud Boissieres, sailing Akena Verandas, Vincent Riou's 2008 generation PRB and Swiss ocean racing veteran Dominique Wavre on Mirabaud, are both expected to make it round the course but perhaps lack the pace - both themselves and their boats - compared to the front runners.

Javier Sanso and his Acciona 100% EcoPowered is the lowest ranked of the new boats, partly because we suspect the Spanish skipper hasn't had time to work his boat up to the speed of his competitors. However his Owen Clarke design looks like it will make the course and that it carries no fossil fuels is a signpost to how many believe we should be going sailing in the future.

Kito de Pavant is a great sailor and a past Solitaire du Figaro winner, but is very low on our form guide on the basis of his boat Groupe Bel's reliability record.

For a laugh - see our form guides to the 2004 and 2008 Vendee Globes.