What to do about Fiji?

Standing down for this leg, Green Dragon navigator Ian Moore looks at what is going on on the Volvo race course

It’s been a great 36 hours for Telefonica Blue as they have made the most of their boats favourite conditions, but I’m predicting a much tougher day ahead. Fiji is right in the way. The leaders all look like they are committed to passing to the west of, or threading the needle between, the two main islands of the Fiji Archipelago. It’s not a foregone conclusion, but they are rapidly running out of options. If they don’t put the bow up in the next few hours it will really show their intentions. If they commit then I have them in the main channel at about 3 Zulu on the 28th which is 3PM local and presents the best possibility of some sort of thermal breeze right on the bricks as the gradient drops away. Having said that, I don’t like the look of it. The wind will be unpredictable and there are islands and reefs everywhere, especially on the exit. The gradient is dropping out across the whole course, but it should be worse in the west and the new breeze is forecast to fill in from the east on Sunday.

I know I’m probably biased, but to be honest I like what Ian and Wouter are doing on the Dragon. They have doggedly kept their weather guage and hopefully it should pay them a few dividends over the next two days. The bad news is they are likely to get a massive header and might have to do some upwind work to keep that guage. After Sunday we might see some convergence in the tracks as the fleet start to chase south towards the first scoring gate.