Pace slows as Volvo Ocean Race turns tricky

As Volvo Ocean Race navigators keep an eye on the cyclone forming ahead of them

As anticipated, since departing Cape Town last Wednesday, the seven VO65s dragged raced off at pace on an ESEerly heading bound for the strongest winds associated with a Southern Ocean depression. Out of the blocks Team Alvimedica led the charge back towards the Roaring Forties with Team SCA and Team Vestas Wind having dropped down to leeward.

With the front passing and the wind veering into the northwest, the first gybe took place late on Friday afternoon with Team Alvimedica still holding the lead, albeit flanked by Dongfeng Race Team and MAPFRE. Team SCA, Team Vestas Wind and Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing then gybed back on to starboard at around 2200 UTC while the lead four duplicated this move some two hours later with Dongfeng being the last to gybe and as a result taking the lead by virtue of being furthest north.  These two gybes created around 56 miles of lateral separation across the race track with Dongfeng in the north and Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing and Team Vestas Wind furthest south.

Over the early hours of Saturday morning, Team Vestas Wind headed off furthest south while MAPFRE and Team Brunel were first to gybe north at around 0930, followed soon after by Team Alvimedica and Dongfeng (still holding the lead). At this point the boats started to get out of phase and the 'formation flying' came to an end with with Team Brunel gybing back at around 1330 followed by the lead trio half an hour later. Meanwhile among the southerly trio, Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing had been the first to gybe north at around 1330, followed by Team Vestas Wind at 1440 and then Team SCA at 1600. When the fleet converged on Saturday mid-evening there was just 21 miles separating first placed Dongfeng from fifth placed Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing.

For this early stage of the leg, the boats were attempting to get the furthest east as quickly as possible in the strongest winds just north of the Roaring Forties, all the while the navigators pouring over the forecasts as they attempted to seek out the best way to get north, for here there has consistently since the leg started been a giant area of high pressure (ie no wind) centred at around 32°S, the routing offering no great options as to how to get through it.

With the exception of Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing which gybed north at 2000 UTC on Saturday evening, the rest of the fleet made this move pretty much en masse at around 2300 on Saturday with Team Alvimedica and Team SCA leaving the gybe a little later, causing them to set up furthest east. With Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing gybing early the race track widen to around 100 miles between Ian Walker's team in the west and Team SCA in the east. Getting north soonest put Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing into the lead over the early hours of Sunday morning, she then appears to suffer a drop in pressure enabling Dongfeng to take over first place mid-morning with Team Brunel edging ahead at 10:20.

And so it has remained for the last 24 hours, with Team Brunel led by Bouwe Bekking a nose out in front as the fleet has come round marginally on to a northeasterly heading as the wind has veered into the northwest. But the most significant change over the last 24 hours is how the wind speed has dropped from around 19 knots to 8-9 currently as the boats encroach into the southeastern sector of the high, the fleet currently 550 miles due south of Madagascar.

At present the GRIB files indicate that the boats should be in an area entirely free of wind, however the info off the boats indicates that they are still in some pressure but this will continue to drop over the course of today before it veers dramatically into the east, indicating that the boats have passed into the northwestern quadrant of the high at which point they will all tack on to a 'get me out of here asap' around NNW. In theory...by being furthest west and furthest away from the high, Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing should be in better pressure to get through this tricky spot, although, if the data coming back from the boats is to believed, this isn't the case at the moment.

The met situation is forecast to change dramatically over the next 24 hours with the high disappearing off to the southeast, leaving a relatively shallow depression behind it to the south of Madagascar. The boats will be negotiating the eastern flank of this, unfortunately with the wind backing into the northeast or even the NNE, putting them on to a starboard tack fetch taking them towards the south side of Madagascar.

But what the navigators are also looking at is the development of a tropical cyclone that is currently forming just south of the Chagos Archipelego and heading slowly in their direction over the course of the week. The GFS model has the centre of this being half way towards Mauritius by Thursday morning and passing to the north of Mauritius by Saturday morning. Given that this is currently some 1300 miles up the race track for the fleet means that the navigators will be looking to do a 'big wind' version of what they are at present doing with the high - sailing into its western side and gybing out as the wind veers from the southeast to southwest. At present the forecast has this being a 40 knotter rather than something hurricane-force and the opportunity for the boats to slingshot themselves north. However things can change and what the teams absolutely will not want is for the cyclone to speed up its move west, forcing them to slog upwind in gale force winds around its eastern side as they won't be able to go west of it  due to the East African Exclusion Zone they are prohibited from entering.

Images courtesy of Expedition and Predictwind

From Matt Knighton, Abu Dhabi Ocan Racing (this morning)

As Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing fights their way north in the light winds of a high pressure, for the first time the mood onboard Azzam can best be described as cautious.  Leg 2 has already reminded us several times that in a race between one-design boats you’re as much at the mercy of the wind gods than anything else.

Somewhat superstitiously, Daryl reflects, “We’ve had breeze the whole time, touch wood (as he pats his head) hoping they’re in a little light spot.”

“This is the first real day since left Cape Town so it’s a good opportunity to dry your gear out and give your neck and wrists a break from the latex seals”, he continues looking at a deck strewn with wet weather gear, boots, and socks drying in the sun.

After several breakages, many onboard are also keen to realise that any gains can be stripped away quite easily.  Every hour now, someone is combing through the hull checking for any sign of wear.  “We’ve not sailed brilliantly well”, says Ian. “We’ve had a few mishaps onboard and now we find ourselves a little bit on a limb with the fleet so a little bit nervous at the moment.”

And then lastly, added in is the one-design element of this race.  A narrow gap of experience is quickly closing every second the fleet spends more time racing the Volvo Ocean 65s.  We know it’s becoming more about the small performance details, our weather routing, and a dose of luck regarding who comes out ahead.

While trimming the Main, SiFi agreed, “I think you discount any team at your own peril, I think everyone is pretty strong.  Some guys are a little more consistent at the moment but already the level is very very high.”

From Matt Knighton, Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing (Sunday morning)

Waking up and stepping out onto the deck onboard Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing this morning, the sharp, bright blue waves of the Southern Ocean had noticeably given way to large rolling swells carrying Azzam North towards Abu Dhabi.  At the helm, a slight grin on Ian’s face hinted at a change in position that occurred with the latest sked - we had jumped from fifth to first overnight.

The rest of the fleet which opted to sail further east did not match our gybe to the north in the middle of the night. We’re all trying to sail to the northeast and place our bets for the best crossing of a developing high pressure. However, in the nav station Ian points out that there’s a circle of red on the routing giving him optimism.

“I think that what’s happened is the currents are playing a major factor in what type of wind everyone’s got.”

The red circle he points at is strong eddy in the Agulhas Current and it’s pushing us northeast at 3 knots.  Continuing Ian explains further, “We’re getting this massive header and practically pointing at Abu Dhabi.”  On the flip side, the rest of the fleet is getting the opposite effect - they can’t gybe north.

The longer this trend holds over the next few hours, the longer we’ll have a slight edge on the other six teams.

The sunlight in the morning sky and the idea of finally heading towards our homeport has been revitalizing.  From the stern of “Azzam” Justin remarked, “Finally pointing at Abu Dhabi for the first time on this trip, just a small matter of a few thousand miles to go.”