Kerguelens fly-by

Banque Populaire to shift north to avoid ice danger zone

Chart above courtesy of Expedition/Tasman Bay Navigation Systems and PredictWind

Loick Peyron and the crew of Banque Populaire have just passed to the south of the Kerguelens Islands. Their course has arced slightly north over the last few hours taking them back above 50°S. Having cleared the Kerguelens and with the wind having backed into the west, the 40m long maxi-tri has just gybed back on to port. Her lead over Jules Verne Trophy pace setter, Groupama 3, is the highest it has ever been - 1908 miles, or around three days, at the latest sched.

With the strongest winds disappearing to the east, and as they have passed over the Kerguelens plateau where there is usually more 'chop' to the sea state, so Banque Populaire has slowed and at the latest sched had averaged 'just' 25 knots over the previous four hours.

The northerly track is also to avoid ice, as their shore-based router Marcel van Triest confirmed yesterday: "There are hundreds of confirmed targets between 90° and 120°E and below 50°S. The largest are 7km long... "

So it seems that the big blue tri will stay north until she passes Cape Leeuwin, at the southwest corner of Australia on Friday. During this time the wind will shift between the west and southwest at 20-25 knots, as the crew await the onset of the next depression which should catch up with them on Friday. This depression is potentially a boat breaker with the forecast indicating 952mB at its centre on Friday with 40+ knots forecast all the way up to 45°S, so it seems entirely possible that Banque Populaire may err north back up towards Groupama 3's track by Friday.