Alex Thomson on the Vendee Globe

The Hugo Boss skipper gives his take on what lies ahead for the front runners

As the leaders keep pushing south, the south Atlantic high really is not playing ball. The boats are all heading to their first south ocean gate which is at 42s 001e, basically southeast of the leaders but the South Atlantic High Pressure with its light winds is blocking the route. Currently the entire fleet is heading south in 15 to 20 knots of wind waiting and hoping the high pressure plays in their favour and allows them to cut the corner and start heading towards the first gate. This situation has been very stable since the boats crossed the Doldrums which means that we are unlikely to see any big changes in the next 3-4 days.

In a normal south Atlantic situation we would expect the leaders to get to the south of the high pressure, hit their first southern ocean depression and hightail it east making large gains on those behind, basically the rich would get richer and poor, poorer. This does not look like it will happen, in fact the opposite will happen, the leaders will loose miles and those behind will have the opportunity to catch up. This is because as the leaders get to the high pressure, their route will be slowed by the light winds but it will then move to the NE allowing those behind to cut the corner and take a more direct route covering less miles towards the first gate. The further behind you are, the more of an advantage this could be.

I ran some routes this morning on Gitana and Foncia this morning using Hugo Boss’s polars. Foncia is nearly 400Nm behind Gitana in real terms right, now but Gitana may have to sail as far south as 44s before she can head for the gate whereas Foncia can turn the corner at 38s and head for the gate. In seven days time we could see that deficit down to less than 100Nm which would be an amazing come back for Foncia who was forced to return to Les Sables for repairs and at one point was 600Nm behind.

Foncia will not be the only benefactor of this situation. My routing is indicating that everyone to as far back as Bernard Stamm could make some enormous gains. Stamm is currently 1200Nm in real terms behind the leaders, optimistically we could see that reduce to just under 300nm, which again would be amazing.

Tomorrow evening we should start to see the lead group slowed a little before they pick up speed again Friday morning but come Saturday they will run into the high pressure while those behind are reaching fast and starting to cut the corner. The prospect of a large group at the start of the southern ocean is going to be very exciting.