Alex Thomson on the Vendee Globe

From the comfort of dry line, the Hugo Boss skipper ponders how his competitors are fairing

North or South, that is the question that will now be puzzling the lead group in the Vendee Globe. This morning the group are separated by 200nm north to south with the most northerly being Britair and Gitana just above a small blip of high pressure and should still be in a good westerly airflow. This seems to tally with this morning’s position data with Gitana and Britair sailing considerably faster, 16 and 14.5 knots respectively while the group to the south and in the blip of high pressure have slowed averaging less than 11 knots or so. This group includes BT, PRB, Generali, Ecover, VM and Virbac who is the furthest south.

Well who is going to profit out of this situation? Normally of course one is looking to get as far south as possible, this will shorten the distance significantly and generally you would be able to sail in stronger more consistent winds. The European weather model and the GFS model are conflicting and are showing completing different routes for the next four days. If the GFS is to be believed then we should see the guys to the north and still in the breeze make some ground and those to the south suffer a little. This is largely dependent on how quickly the low pressure coming up behind them will move and whether the boats can keep up with it. The positioning now will be crucial and it is so difficult to predict who will be the winners and who the losers as the forecasting is not as accurate in the Southern Ocean as it is where we live!

My instincts are a little torn as based on my experience I believe that the GFS model is more reliable down there, however south so often is king and I quite like the position of Golding and Dick. Certainly either way all of them are going to experience their first real Southern Ocean storm, some of them may see as much as 40-45 knots of wind and as they enter the southern Indian Ocean now may not be the time to put the foot on the gas. The skippers are leaving the security of inhabited land and will probably feel the pressure of the desolate empty waters ahead of them. Now is not the time to make a mistake or push too hard.

See all the weather charts on page 2....