Record run to Hobart

Routing suggests Wild Oat could take a whopping 10 hours of Rolex Sydney Hobart race record this year

The latest weather forecasts suggest the 64th Rolex Sydney Hobart will be a quick one. Fresh to strong, 20-30 knot northeast following winds for the first two days from the 26 December start will push the 100 boat fleet south at high speed under spinnaker. The predicted WSW change of 25-30 knots to follow will allow straight-line reaching courses towards Tasman Island, the last turning mark 41 nautical-miles from the finish.

The sailing will be tough as the yachts speed south at speeds of up to 25 knots for the maxis and the mid-fleet and smaller boats will have to climb big waves in Bass Strait, but the conditions will be manageable for all. Nowhere in the forecasts - government and commercial - is mentioned the dreaded S-word, 'southerly', that on this 628 nm course, which crosses the notoriously rough Bass Strait, means strong to gale force headwinds and punishing waves.

In this scenario, the fastest yacht in the race, Bob Oatley's canting-keeled Reichel/Pugh 98 Wild Oats XI, could cut an extraordinary ten hours off the race record she set at one day, 18 hours, 40 minutes and 10 seconds in 2005 as well as taking line honours for the fourth consecutive year.

But forecaster Roger Badham, who provides specialist services to a number of yachts in the fleet including Wild Oats XI, warns that the pace-setting big boats could be slowed by a lightening of the northerly flow as they close the Tasmanian coast on the afternoon and evening of Saturday, 27 December. "It's looking a bit wishy washy," Badham says. "They look like getting around Tasman Island around 9pm to midnight, still ahead of the race record but facing softer breeze."

Wild Oats XI's skipper Mark Richards sees the first six hours and the last six hours of the race deciding her record-breaking chances: "You could get to Tasman Light in 24 hours but it's a matter of getting from there to the finishing line, which can take 12 hours. You just don't know."

Following Wild Oats XI home to Hobart should be Grant Wharington's Jones-designed 98ft canting keeled maxi Skandia and Andrew Short's fixed-keel R/P 80 ASM Shockwave 5. Next into Constitution Dock should be Matt Allen's modified Volvo 70 Ichi Ban and Peter Harburg's well-sailed R/P 66 Black Jack - another two entrants equipped with canting keels. Wharington concedes his older maxi Skandia has little chance of beating Wild Oats XI into Hobart and so has configured her to win the race's major trophy, the Tattersall's Cup.

The international yachting community will be following the fortunes of the two brand new Reichel/Pugh designs, the 63-foot Loki, owned by Stephen Ainsworth and the 62-foot Limit of Alan Brierty, which should also both enjoy the downwind conditions. They are virtually sister designs. Limit's slightly more plumb bow profile accounts for the overall length difference. Loki has a more conservative 'pin-head' shaped mainsail while Limit has square-topped mainsail.

British America's Cup and Olympic sailor Andy Beadsworth (below), tactician/helmsman aboard Loki, welcomed the forecasts of more moderate winds than those issued earlier in the week: "we don't want to break the boat on its very first outing but we also want to push the boat hard and see what we can do on its first race."



Forecaster Badham believes winner of the Tattersall's Cup is most likely to come from the mid-sized band of boats, which include the race-hardened, well-campaigned TP52s Wot Now (Graeme Wood), Ragamuffin (Sid Fischer), Quest (Bob Steel), Cougar II (Alan Whitely) and the boats most likely to be close behind them at Tasman Island including Ray Roberts' canting-keeled Cookson 50 Quantum Racing, R/P 55 Yendys (Geoff Ross - below), the Cookson 50 Shogun (Rob Hanna) and Geoff Boettcher's R/P 47 Secret Men's Business 3. By turning up at Tasman Light between nine in the morning and mid-day they would benefit from more reliable winds over the last tricky 40.8 nm across Storm Bay and up the River Derwent to the finish.



The race has 11 overseas entries: 41SUD (Jean-Luc Esplaas, New Caledonia), Pinta-M (Atse Blei, Netherlands), Winsome (Harry Heijst, Netherlands), Lady Courier (Géry Trentesaux, France), Pachamama Top to Top Global Climate Expedition (Dario Schwoerer, Switzerland), Walross 4 (Academy Sailing Club, Germany), Mustang Sally (Warren Batt, New Zealand), Time Lord (Donald Munro, New Zealand), Kioni-Global Yacht Racing (UK), Jus' Do It 3 (Ian Darby, Scotland), Ragtime (Chris Welsh, USA).

Although the forecast conditions will not suit her, the overseas yacht with the best chance of a Tattersall's Cup win is Lady Courrier, a Beneteau First 45, which in 2008 won the Bell Lawrie Scottish Series, decided on IRC handicap. Trentesaux is a very experienced offshore sailor who has twice been in French teams contesting the Rolex Commodores' Cup, masterminding the French win in 2006. With his previous boat, the Beneteau First 44.7 Courrier du Coeur, he placed third overall in the storm-ridden 2007 Rolex Fastnet Race.

41-Sud, an Archambault 40 from New Caledonia, is skippered by Jean-Luc Esplaas, who has in the past twenty years competed in short-handed as well as fully-crewed races in the Pacific. With Young 11 Noumea he survived the 1998 Sydney Hobart storm to place third in division. Pinta-M and Winsome are both 1972-vintage Sparkman & Stephens 41s. Pinta-M placed fifth overall on IRC corrected time in the 2005 Rolex Fastnet. The anticipated downwind race will not suit them. Like the similar S&S 47 Love & War from the same era, which won the 2006 Rolex Sydney Hobart, they are at their best upwind in strong winds.

The USA's sole entry is the legendary Ragtime, the hard-chine plywood 65-footer originally named Infidel, which John Spencer designed for Sir Tom Clark of New Zealand in 1965. Thwarted from entering the 1967 Sydney Hobart by the CYCA's firm stance in those days against admitting radical designs, Clark sold the boat to a syndicate of Americans based in Long Beach, California. Ragtime went on to win line honours in the 1973 and 1975 Los Angeles-Honolulu Transpac races and continued to be a Transpac line honours contender through to the 1990s. She sat neglected in Long Beach Harbour for five years until a consortium including Welsh bought her at a sheriff's auction and got her to the start of the 2005 Transpac.

Welsh subsequently bought out his partners to take sole ownership and give Ragtime an extensive refit, in consultation with designer Alan Andrews. He installed a new rudder, a new keel and a carbon rig, adding a new mainsail and new asymmetrical spinnakers. Earlier this year Ragtime won the 3,571 nm Tahiti Race from Los Angeles to Papeete and in October won the IRC handicap division of New Zealand's Coastal Classic, from Auckland to Russell.

A fleet of 100 yachts will compete in this year's race, which starts at 1300 AEDT, 26 December 2008. The Rolex Sydney Hobart fleet will have crews representing the USA, UK, New Zealand, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Russia and New Caledonia as well as every Australian state.

The field:

Boat	Skipper	From	Type	LOA
Wild Oats XI	Bob Oatley/Mark Richards	NSW	Maxi 30m	100
Skandia	Grant Warrington	VIC	IRC Maxi 98	98
ASM Shockwave 5	Andrew Short	NSW	Reichel Pugh 80	80
ASM Brindabella	P Baker	NSW	Jutson 79	79
Ichi Ban	Matt Allen	NSW	Jones 70	70
Black Jack	Peter Harburg	QLD	Reichel Pugh 66	66
Helsal III	Rob Fisher	TAS	Adams 20	65
Pirelli	Martin James	NSW	Farr 65	65
Ragtime	Chris Welsh	USA	Spencer 65	65
Loki	Stephen Ainsworth	NSW	Reichel Pugh 63	63
Helsal IV	Tony Fisher	TAS	Dynamique 62	62
Limit	Alan Brierty	WA	Reichel Pugh 62	62
Getaway-Sailing.com	Peter Goldsworthy	NSW	Volvo 60	60
Telcoinabox Merit	Leo Rodriguez	QLD	Volvo 60	60
Pale Ale Rager	Gary Shanks	SA	Elliot 56	56
Walross 4	Christian Masilge	Germany	Nissen 56	56
Yendys	Geoff Ross	NSW	Reichel Pugh 55	55
Flying Fish Arctos	Andy Fairclough/James Dobie	NSW	Radford 16.4	54
Sailors With Disabilities	David Pescud	NSW	Lyons 54	54
Georgia	John Williams/Graeme Ainley	VIC	Farr 53	53
Cougar II	Alan Whiteley	VIC	TP 52	52
Goldfinger	Peter Blake	VIC	Farr 52	52
Quest	Bob Steel	NSW	TP 52	52
Ragamuffin	Syd Fischer	NSW	TP52	52
Wot Now	Graeme Wood	NSW	JV52	52
Wot Yot	Bill Skyes	NSW	TP52	52
Finistere	Robert Thomas	WA	Davidson 50	50
Pachamama: Swiss TOP to TOP Global Climate Expedition	Dario Schwoerer	Switzerland	Nivelt 50	50
Quantum Racing	Ray Roberts	NSW	Cookson 50	50
Shogun	Rob Hanna	VIC	Cookson 50	50
Time Lord	Donald Munro	New Zealand	Bavaria 50	50
Audi Centre Melbourne	Chris Dare	VIC	Corby 49	49
Optimus Prime	Trevor Taylor	WA	Marten 49	49
Ray White Spirit of Koomooloo	Mike Freebairn	QLD	S&S 49	49
Strewth	Geoff Hill	NSW	MKL 49	49
Jus' do it 3	Ian Darby	Scotland, UK	Beneteau 47.7	48
Kioni - Global Yacht Racing	Andy Middleton	NSW	Beneteau First 47.7	48
Abracadabra	James Murchison	NSW	Tripp 47	47
Balance	Paul Clitheroe	NSW	Sydney 47CR	47
Secret Mens Business 3	Geoff Boettcher	SA	Reichel Pugh 47	47
St Jude	Noel Cornish	NSW	Sydney 47	47
Terra Firma	Nicholas Bartels	VIC	Sydney 47	47
Mahligai	Murray Kings	NSW	Sydney 46	46
Mustang Sally	Warren Batt	New Zealand	Farr 46	46
Somoya	Garry Rose	VIC	Northshore 46	46
Charlie's Dream	Peter Lewis	QLD	Bluewater 450	45
Lady Courrier	Gery Trentesaux	France	Beneteau First 45	45
Mr Beaks Ribs	David Beak	NSW	Beneteau First 44.7	45
Rush	John Paterson	VIC	Corel 45	45
Bacardi	Martin Power	VIC	Peterson 44	44
Lloyds Brokers - Too Impetuous	Rudy Weber	QLD	Holland 43	43
Pla Loma IV	Rob Reynolds	NSW	DK 43	43
Polaris of Belmont	Chris Dawe	NSW	Cole 43	43
Valheru	Tony Lyall	TAS	Elliott 43	43
Copernicus	Greg Zyner	NSW	Radford 12	42
Secret Men's Business 1	Ross Trembath/Rob Curtis	NSW	Murray 42	42
Wedgetail	Bill Wild	QLD	Welbourn 42	42
Chance of Shenval	Robert Green	VIC	Farr	41
Chancellor	Ted Tooher	NSW	Beneteau First 40.7	41
Inca	Noel Sneddon	ACT	Vickers 41	41
Patrice Six	Tony Kirby	NSW	X41	41
Pinta - M	Atse Blei	Netherlands	S & S 41	41
True North	Andrew Saies	SA	Beneteau First 40.7	41
Winsome	Harry Keijst	The Netherlands	S & S 41	41
41 SUD	Jean-Luc Esplaas	New Caledonia	Archambault 40	40
AFR Midnight Rambler	Ed Psaltis	NSW	Farr 40	40
Aurora	Jim and Mary Holley	NSW	Farr 40 - One Off	40
Broadsword	Simon Wood	NSW	Archambault 40	40
Chutzpah	Bruce Taylor	VIC	IRC 40	40
Dream Lover	Rick Morgan	QLD	MBD 40	40
Inner Circle	Ken Robinson/Darren Cooney	NSW	Farr 40 IOR	40
Isabella	John Nolan	NSW	Hanse 400E	40
Krakatoa II	Rod Skellet	NSW	Pogo 40	40
Papillon	Phil Molony	NSW	Archambault 40	40
Quetzalcoatl	Antony Sweetapple	NSW	Jones 40	40
She	Peter Rodgers	NSW	Olsen 40	40
Jazz Player	Andrew Lawrence	VIC	Bakewell - White 39	39
Seahold Perie Banou II	Jon Sanders	WA	S & S 39	39
She's The Culprit	Todd Leary	TAS	Jones 39	39
Typhoon	Barry Kelly	NSW	Farr 395	39
Audacious	Greg Clinnick/Paul Holden	VIC	Sydney 38	38
Dormit INSX	Robert Sill	VIC	NSX 38	38
Eleni	Tony Levett	NSW	Sydney 38	38
Getaway Sailing 2	J Pettifer	NSW	Sydney 38	38
J Steel (Yeah Baby)	Marc Ryckmans	NSW	Sydney 38	38
Leukaemia Foundation	R Holstein/S Kellie	NSW	Sydney 38	38
Morris Finance Cinquante	Ian Murray	VIC	Sydney 38	38
Obsession	Andrew Lygo	NSW	Sydney 38 Mod	38
The SubZero Goat	Michael Gordon	NSW	Sydney 38	38
One For The Road	Kym Butler	NSW	Northshore 37	37
Pippin	Roger Sayers	QLD	Farr 37	37
Salona	Philip King	NSW	Salona 37	37
Sanyo Maris	Ian Kiernan	NSW	Tasman Seabird	37
Tow Truck	Anthony Paterson	NSW	Ker 11.3	37
Pisces	David Taylor	TAS	Sydney 36	36
Wild Side	Martin Vaughan/Eddie Ragauskas	VIC	Sydney 36 CR	36
CHorse	John Smith	NSW	Cavalier 350 SL	35
Impeccable	John Walker	NSW	3/4 tonner IOR	33
Maluka of Kermandie	Sean Langman	NSW		32
Nest Property	Murray Wilkes	TAS	Traditional 30	30