Alfa Romeo on track for Hobart double

As mid-fleet gets stuck in Bass Strait light winds

At the 08:20 sched (21:20 GMT), the leading trio of supermaxis in the Rolex Sydney Hobart race were off the east coast of Tasmania, Neville Crichton’s supermaxi Alfa Romeo still leading and with 136 miles left to go before crossing the finish line off the Tasmania capital.

Overnight Alfa Romeo successfully negotiated her way through a wind hole north of Flinders Island, off the eastern entrance of Bass Strait, and being first to the new building breeze has increased her lead to 30 nautical miles over the two other maxis chasing her. While sailing down the Tasmanian coast, the race will typically become processional, the vagaries of the wind forecast at the lower southeast Tasmanian coast now seem the last possible chance for Wild Oats XI and ICAP Leopard to catch the runaway leader.

Based on current speed Alfa Romeo is due to cross the finish line off Hobart’s historic Battery Point early this evening (morning GMT), thereby bringing to an end Wild Oats XI’s four-year reign. If she maintains her current speed, 20+ knots in the 15 knot northwest breeze, Alfa Romeo could feasibly take the daily double - line honours and the Tattersall’s Cup for the overall winner - a reversal of the 2005 finish when Wild Oats XI relegated Alfa Romeo to second and scored the overall win, as well as setting the current course record.

Currently Alfa Romeo is comfortably leading the fleet not only on the water but under IRC, which she is sitting out in front of Ed Psaltis and Bob Thomas’ AFR Midnight Ramblerand the New Caledonian Archambault 40 41Sud, sailed by Jean Luc Esplass, and Anthony Paterson’s Ker 11.3 Tow Truck.

The race favourites for the handicap win in the 50-60ft size range are having a tough time. The best placed in eighth position is last year’s winner, Bob Steel’s TP52 Quest, but unlike the little boats behind, the 60 footers have had to contend with the big hole above Flinders Island overnight. They will have southerly winds most of the way down the Tasmanian coast and could arrive at Tasman Island for the final turn after the notorious midnight ‘shutting of the gate’, when the wind dies and Storm Bay and the Derwent River become very quiet places to park indeed.

At 0548 this morning, Alfa Romeo’s navigator Tom Addis said, "We got the [high pressure] ridge pretty well. It’s always stressful going through transitions like that but we did as much homework as we could and it all went to plan."

Meanwhile 30 miles astern and in third place in the fleet, Wild Oats XI’s co-navigator Ian ‘Fresh’ Burns admitted, " Alfa Romeo hasn't missed a step yet and they are unlikely to. We have one more transition to go. Alfa gets richer and richer. They are looking like the handicap win too."

Overnight, boats that favoured the western side of the Rhumbline reaped gains, particularly Sean Langman’s Investec LOYAL which has moved into fourth in the fleet.
Around midnight a gradual drop in wind strength and some variability in direction saw the front end of the fleet slow from 14-16 knots of boat speed to less than 10, and occasionally as low as 4-5. At 3am the leading three boats were east of Flinders Island averaging speeds around 10-15knts in a 0-5kt NNE breeze.

"We managed to cross the [high pressure] ridge as it was spreading up. We dove west, as did Alfa Romeo and ICAP Leopard, to get around it and we did. The guys behind got swallowed and are still there," said Burns just before 6am this morning.

Jim and Mary Holley this morning advised the race committee that their Farr 40 Aurora from Newcastle Cruising Yacht Club was heading to Eden to effect repairs on her engine before she attempts her Bass Strait crossing. Aurora has not withdrawn and intends to resume racing as long as repairs can be made.

After a frustrating first two days of the 628 nautical mile Rolex Sydney Hobart the bulk of the fleet should enjoy a 20 knot westerly wind as they cross eastern Bass Strait today.

The leading boats have had to contend with a dead patch of air on the southern side of Bass Strait as the weather transitioned from the north east to the west/south west, but as the leaders have left that transition they have sailed into a good west/north westerlies which have accelerated the maxis to speeds of up to, and over, 20 knots.

As the leaders sail down the Tasmanian coast the wind is forecast swing to the south.
By this evening, when the 50-60 footers are sailing down the Tasmanian coast and the race leaders are likely to be tied up in Hobart, the wind right up and down the coast is expected to be around 10 knots from the south, slowing the second half of the fleet down in the hunt for the Tattersall’s Cup.