Record run still on cards

Latest forecast for the Rolex Sydney-Hobart shows rip-roaring conditions for maxi 24 hours in

Conditions are still looking to be record breaking for the front runners in the Rolex Sydney Hobart due to set sail at 13.20 local time today from Sydney Harbour. Conditions look set to be light for the first 24 hours but will see the large boats roaring into Hobart ahead of strong northeasterly, however the slower boats will be in for a hard time crossing Bass Straight on Wednesday.

Barry Hanstrum of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology gives his forecast: "The expected conditions in the race are pretty similar to the ones we describes in the preliminary briefing on Saturday and that the race conditions today will start in pretty light winds out of the south east to east around 5-10 knots, but overnight tonight and during tomorrow the wind conditions become a lot more favourable with the wind turning around to the northeast and strengthening during the day. So by tomorrow afternoon and evening off the southern coast of New South Wales and the eastern Bass Straight we are expecting that the winds will be 30 knots and possibly even reaching 35 knots at times. So the big boats in those conditions will be flying down the coast late tomorrow.

"That period of strong northerly winds really continues until early Wedneday morning when an abrupt westerly change will move through Bass Straight. We think that that change will be around Eden on the New South Wales coast at around 1000 or so Wedneday morning. When we look at the whole sequence of race days during the week then Wednesday is the one which we thing will pose the biggest challenge weather-wise because during Wednesday behind that change expect a period of gale force westerly wind through Bass Straight for about 12 hours. So from the time of the change in the morning, through until late afternoon-evening they’ll be a westerly gale and in those gale force winds the seas will be increasing to around 4m with a 1-2m swell increasing. So I think that day will be the toughest of the days during the whole week.

"Behind that change, fortunately it is not sustained for very long, that front responsible weakens and moves away. The wind turn back to the northwest again on Thursday and Friday and then gradually strength again ahead of another front later on Friday. After the strong winds on Wednesday conditions become a bit more favourable with the winds turning back to having a more northerly component."

The latest six hourly wind charts for the first three days of the race follow:

Images courtesy of Expedition Navigation Systems









Remaining charts on the next two pages....