No wind or upwind

Slow start forecasted for leg two of the Mini Transat

The Mini Transat gets underway this afternoon and it is looking like the 70 singlehanders are going to have a tactically challenging time of it for the start of their 2,900 mile passage from Puerto Calero, Lanzarote across the Atlantic to Salvador de Bahia Brazil.

The forecast remains largely the same as it did two days ago with a depression centred to the NW of the Canary Islands (see above).

The first job will be to get away from the Canary Islands. Because what wind there is will be southwesterly - blowing in the opposite direction to the Trades - the skippers while have the normal issues of wind shadow and wind shear, but in reverse. Puerto Calero on the south side of Lanzarote is in the lee of Fuerteventura.

Once past Punta de la Entallada on the southeast side of Fuerteventura, around 42 miles from the start, the boats should be into clear air. Corner bangers who try for the left side of the course heading for the African coast are likely to run out of wind, while there is also the option of sailing through the channel between Lanzarote and Fuerteventura. There is the possibility of more breeze taking this option, but the period skippers will be in the wind shadow of the islands (in this case Gran Canaria) will be twice as long.

Overnight tonight the wind looks like it may back to the southwest but will be very very light and returns to the southwest tomorrow morning.

Once clear of the Canaries skippers sometime late on Sunday the skippers will have the choice of no wind on the left side of the course or 10-15 knots southwesterlies to the right. However whatever their tactics there seems to be little way they will be able to avoid sailing across a ridge that forms across the race course on Monday. At present it doesn't looks like the Azores high will get back on station, causing the wind to shift back into the northeast, and Trades to start re-establishing themselves until Tuesday morning... This shift comes in from the left side of the course and the forecast indicates it won't fully establish until Tuesday afternoon. From there the boats should have a blast in the Trades down to the Cape Verdes.