Leg 9 preview

James Boyd looks at what lies in store for tomorrow's final Volvo leg across to Germany

The ninth and final leg of the Volvo Ocean Race kicks off tomorrow at 1200GMT from Gothenburg. This is a 250 mile meander through Danish waters that should see the Volvo Ocean Race conclude in Kiel sometime on Sunday.

John Kostecki's illbruck are looking reasonably comfortable in the top spot, with a five point advantage over ASSA ABLOY in second. It would therefore take Neal McDonald's team a win and illbruck coming sixth for the two boats to tie on 57 points or for illbruck to come seventh for her to be beaten. illbruck has yet to finish lower than fourth place in the eight legs to date, but in the unlikely event that they did finish level on points with ASSA ABLOY it would go to a tie break, counting the firsts, seconds, thirds, etc.

The real dog fight will be taking place for third place between Tyco, News Corp and Amer Sports One, all currently on 40 points. So how do the skippers rate their chances?

"We're in that nice position where we are coming from behind," says Tyco's Kevin Shoebridge, who have been recovering well from a retirement on leg 2 when their rudder broke. "It always feels slightly more relaxing when you are coming up the ladder and not down the ladder. We're doing everything we can. We've put a huge effort here into the weather, and local knowledge. We've spoken to a lot very good Swedish sailors; we have a very good German meteorologist who is working with us".

"It looks like it will be a very light leg and we believe we were fast when we won the leg into Baltimore," says News Corp skipper, Jez Fanstone. "At that time the boat was very light. We've taken every step possible to lighten the boat in all areas, including reducing crew numbers". News Corp say they are 'moding' the boat for the lighter breeze expected on Sunday.

Although the last leg is the shortest in the Volvo Ocean Race, it does not look like it will be the fastest by any means. The forecast shows an occluded front coming off a shallow low pressure system to the east, the gradient is due to fall off even more on Sunday giving increasingly light easterly winds. See the weather charts for 1200 Saturday, midnight Saturday and 1200 Sunday. The race organisation are intent on getting the boats into Kiel on Sunday and have all manner of provisions for lengthening the course or shortening it.

While there are few passing lanes on this leg, the boats will have to negotiate plenty of islands as they sail through Denmark and land effects are expected to be a major influence on conditions particularly as they sail through the Kattegat on the second half of the leg.

Because of this many of the teams are going 'ultra light' this leg and leaving crewmen on the dock. Most extreme is djuice who will be sailing with a crew of just nine. News Corp are going with 10 and have brought on board America's Cup tactician Peter Isler for added inspiration. Tyco are taking 11 crew on this leg and have brought have Irishman Damian Foxall. Both the Amer boats, illbruck and ASSA ABLOY are staying with their full compliment of crew and have made no crew changes. SEB are also going with 12, but have brought back Prada match racing specialist Gavin Brady.