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Libby Greenhalgh compares her forecast for last weekend with what actually happened

Tuesday April 29th 2003, Author: Libby Greenhalgh, Location: United Kingdom
To see Libby's original forecast - click here

The weekend was dominated by the two forecst low pressure systems providing wet and windy conditions across the day. With the forecast lighter winds of Saturday building to a steady 20 knots and wet on Sunday.

Saturday saw the wind direction further east than forecast at around 120 with very light winds that slowly built across the morning and veered. By midday the wind was at the forecast 150° and the wind strength was around 10 knots as the low pressure system stayed relatively weak. Across the afternoon the wind continued to veer and strengthened to 12 knots mid afternoon. By early evening the wind direction had reached 190° and the wind strength had built towards 20 knots. In terms of the forecast the Saturday’s was pretty much right.

Sunday dawned with the best part of 30 knots from 230°. While the direction was right the wind speed was considerably more than expected. The strong winds of Sunday morning were expected to have blown through overnight but the low pressure center remained off to the west of Scotland. Across the morning as the low pressure centre moved north west the wind strength decreased and the direction backed. This was due to the second low centre tracking across over the British Isles for Monday.

Sunday saw the wind strength on average around 18-20 knots as forecast with the direction as expected at around 210°-230°. Not until mid-afternoon did the wind begin to decrease and the forecast backing to the south never occured with the wind going only as far as 205°. This was due to the second low pressure system not tracking to the UK as quickly as expected.

Outlook for this weekend

Another wet and windy weekend with Saturday producing winds above 20 knots from the southwest as a low pressure system dominates the Solent. Sunday will see the low weaken and the wind speeds decrease slightly but still remain around 20 knots or more from the southwest.

Not the greatest start to May, but a typical British Bank Holiday.

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