Paul Cayard - Part 2

Oracle's sidelined helmsman reveals his predictions for America's Cup success to Andy Rice

Having had such a blast revisiting the Southern Ocean aboard Amer Sports One, it seemed Paul Cayard had belatedly remembered the reasons for doing the Whitbread Race four years before. So would he consider mounting his own challenge in the next Volvo Race?

"I might, but the reason why I didn't do it this time was I'd won it last time and didn't want to invest that much of myself in something that I really didn't have. There's not a lot to be gained by coming back to defend your title. It's a more interesting one to come in and win. It was also more interesting to me to come in and do an America's Cup, and I had an opportunity at the time to do that, so that's where I went with that."

Now he is sitting at home in San Francisco, still salaried by Oracle Racing but unemployed too. At least it gives madforsailing a chance to get Cayard's predicted running order for the Cup. For him, there are four challengers that stand a league apart from the rest. "I would put Oracle on top, the Swiss second, Prada third, OneWorld fourth, and then the Brits, probably.

"I think the Brits could surprise a few people. A good, fresh, new approach, with young guys who are doing it for the first time, who are truly motivated to do a good job. That's what it smells like to me. I don't even know those guys that well - I know Ian Walker a little bit. Obviously they're lacking in some areas, they haven't done five America's Cups. But what's good is that they'll figure it out pretty quickly, their hearts are really in it, they're very motivated to do a good job, and they're not loaded down with a bunch of 'this is how we used to do it' mentality. That's what it seems to me.

"In Team New Zealand, in all the other four I named, you've got a lot of America’s Cup experience, so you're going to have a lot of preconceived ideas about how things are done. And most of that is good. Most of that is experience, and most of that is trying things that haven't worked." But there is also the danger of experience leading to complacency. This is why he believes GBR Challenge could have the odd ace up its sleeve.

After the Brits, his running order goes: Dennis Conner, illbruck, Victory Challenge, Mascalzone Latino, and the French. So can any of the small fish cause an upset? "I think it's quite possible the Brits or Dennis could upset Prada or OneWorld. I think Alinghi and Oracle are a cut above - well Oracle's had a few more shakedowns," he adds wryly. "Let's just say that the Brits and Dennis have the ability to take down one of the top four."

So much for the challengers. How about the defender? "Team New Zealand is much more on an even level this time. They've been stripped of a lot of things. I really would put them equal with the best two of the other four, which I think would be Oracle and the Swiss. They all have different attributes that make them strong. The Swiss strengths are very different to Oracle's strengths, for example."

Click on page 2 to get Cayard's view on the messy Sean Reeves controversy...