Olympic Predictions

Ed Gorman has put together madforsailing's country by country guide to the form book in Sydney

Predicting medal-winners in Olympic sailing is never easy. Too many factors can come into play and most competitors are aware that Sydney Harbour may well have a decisive say on the outcome of more than one class in this Olympic regatta.

Australia No surprise then that the team with home advantage is being widely tipped to carry off more medals than any other, though they are unlikely to rival the USA's performance at Barcelona in 1992, when American sailors took home nine medals, one gold, six silver and two bronze.

The Australians are in the medal zone in the Men's Boards with Lars Kleppich (world champion last year); the Tornado with Darren Bundock and John Forbes (world champions 1998); the Men's 470 with Tom King and Mark Turnbull (world champions this year); Women's 470s with Jenny Armstrong and Belinda Stowell (second at the worlds and current European champions); the Laser with Michael Blackburn (fourth in Savannah); the Star with Colin Beashel and David Giles (world champions last year), and the 49ers with Chris Nicholson and Daniel Phillips (world champions in 1997, '98 and '99). As if that is not enough, the home nation also has outside chances in the Europe with Melanie Dennison and the Women's Boards through Jessica Crisp.

Britain

The British team - the strongest sent to the Games in recent years - is second on paper with clear medal chances for Ben Ainslie in Lasers (former world champion, silver medallist and triple European champion); Iain Percy in Finns (European champion); Andy Beadsworth, Barry Parkin and Richard Sydenham in Solings (fourth in Savannah, third in this year's match racing worlds), and Shirley Robertson in Europes (second in this year's world championships and fourth in Savannah). There are also outside chances in the Star through Ian Walker and Mark Covell and in the Men's 470s through Nick Rogers and Joe Glanfield.

USA

Next it's the Americans, the most successful sailing nation at the Games over the years with 52 medals. They have brought a very experienced squad to Sydney and are clearly in the medal hunt in the Star with Mark Reynolds and Magnus Liljedahl (European champions in '98, this year's world champions); in 49ers with Charlie and Jonathan McKee (second at the worlds in '97); in Men's 470s with Paul Foerster and Bob Merrick (first at Sail Melbourne this year and first at Hyeres last year), and in Solings with Jeff Madrigali, Craig Healy and Hartwell Jordan (fleet racing world champions this year and bronze medal at Savannah).

France

France, which is second overall in sailing medals with 37 in total, had a disastrous regatta at Savannah, emerging without a medal of any hue. This time they are back in the hunt in the Men's 470 with Philippe Gildas and Tanguy Cariou (second at this year's worlds); in Men's Boards with Alexandre Guyander (first at Hyeres last year), and in Women's Boards through Lise Vidal (runner-up at last year's Sydney Harbour regatta). Philippe Presti, Jean-Marie Dauris and Pascal Rambeau have an outside chance in Solings.

New Zealand

New Zealand, which managed just one silver medal at Savannah after being a consistent top-three nation in sailing through 1984, '88 and '92, has chances this time in Women's Boards through Barbara Kendall (gold in '92, silver in '96), and Men's Boards through Aaron McIntosh (world champion in '97 and '99). There are outside chances in the Star with Gavin Brady and Jamie Gale, in 49ers through Daniel Slater and Nathan Handley and in Men's 470s with Simon Cooke and Pete Nickolas.

Germany, Netherlands and Sweden

The Germans have Jochen Schumann in Solings (triple gold medallist and defending Olympic champion) who is sailing with Gunnar Bahr and Ingo Borkowski; Marcus Baur and Philipe Barth in 49ers (current world number one) and Roland Gaebler and Rene Schwall in Tornadoes (world champions). The Dutch have three strong medal candidates in Roy Heiner, Dirk de Ridder and Peter van Niekerk in Solings (winners at Spa last year and third at last year's worlds in Melbourne); Magriet Matthijsse in Europes (world champion last year), and Serge Kats in Lasers (world ranked four). Another nation with three good medalling chances is Sweden with Hans Wallen, Magnus Auguston and Johan Barne in Solings (European champions last year); Karl Sunesson in Lasers (fourth at this year's worlds) and Fredy Loof in Finns (world champion last year).

Brazil, Denmark, Canada, Portugal, Ukraine and Spain

Leading the nations with two good medal chances is Brazil, the biggest medal winner four years ago with two golds and a bronze. This time the Brazilians are again contenders in Stars with Torben Grael and Marcelo Ferreira (gold medallists in Savannah) and in Lasers with Robert Scheidt (gold medal in Savannah and four-time world champion). Denmark is in the medal hunt in Solings with Jesper Bank (gold medal at Barcelona in '92) who is sailing with Henrik Blakskjaer and Thomas Jacobsen, and in Europes with Kristine Roug (gold medal in Savannah). Canada also has two clear chances with Ross McDonald and Kai Bjorn in Stars (second at the worlds last year) and Richard Clarke in Finns (current world number one).

Portugal is a contender in Men's 470s with Alvaro Marinho and Miguel Nunes (won both Olympic "test events" in Sydney), and in Men's Boards with Joao Rodrigues (third at the worlds in '98). Ukraine has good medal chances in Women's 470s with Ruslana Taran and Olena Pakholchik (silver in Savannah and world champions last year), and in the Men's 470s through Eugeny Braslavets and Igor Matviyenko (defending Olympic champions). The Spanish, the second best performing nation in Savannah with two golds, are in the hunt in 49ers with Santiago Lopez and Javier de la Plaza (world champions), and in Tornadoes with Fernando Leon and Jose Luis Ballester (defending Olympic champions).

Poland, Austria, Israel, Fiji, Greece, Hong Kong, Italy and Finland

That leaves the "oncers" starting with Poland which again has a strong medal chance in Finns through Mateusz Kusnierewicz (defending Olympic champion). Austria is a player in Tornadoes through Roman Hagara and Hans P Steinacher (winners at Spa and Hyeres last year). Israel is in with a chance in Men's Boards with Amith Inbar (winner at this year's South American championship), likewise Fiji in the same class with Tony Philp (runner-up at last year's worlds). Greece perhaps fields the favourite in this fleet with Nikolaos Kaklamanakis (gold medal in Savannah and current world champion).

Lai Shan Lee will be bidding to retain her title for Hong Kong in Women's Boards, a class in which Italy - a surprisingly poor performer over the years at the Games - is also a contender through Alessandra Sensini (current world champion). Finally, Sari Multala (first at Kiel Week) has a chance for Finland in Europes.

And in addition to all of the above, there will no doubt be some new stars in world sailing anointed in Sydney over the next two weeks. Come back when it's all over and see how the favourites did!