Forecast for the UK this weekend

The Daily Sail meteorologist Libby Greenhalgh makes her predictions

Update 2040 Friday 22nd Nov

Forecast for tomorrow are holding well with earlier predictions (see below). Strong 25 knot southerly winds are set to persist through the morning until midday as a developing low pressure centre over Brittany pushes northwards into south west Britain. Midday will still see the change as a trough associated with the new low centre pushes through the Solent bringing a veer in the wind direction by early afternoon. The strength of the wind will begin to moderate late afternoon, early evening to between 18 –22 knots.

Over Saturday night the low pressure centre will continue to fill and you will need to keep your eyes peeled on the developing low pressure over central Spain and its movement towards the UK. The earlier forecast issued suggested a stronger easterly element in the wind direction on Sunday afternoon. The current outlook shows a southerly wind of between 15-20 knots in the morning with no significant variation in wind strength or direction across the Solent on a synoptic scale.

Synoptic charts for Saturday showing precipitation and the 1000mb synoptic chart show the strong rainfall patterns that will affect the race course by midday Saturday. While Sunday will be a much drier and therefore a more stable wind without the rain clouds.

Forecast for the weekend

Friday: Midday today will see strong 30 knot south westerly winds setting in in the Solent. An approaching trough will bring further wet weather through the afternoon, as the low pressure that has loomed over the Atlantic during the week looks set to arrive and disperse allowing ideal (if a bit breezy) racing conditions for the weekend.

Early Saturday morning will see a wet start with a strong southerly breeze of 30 knots or more. Between 6am and midday the low pressure system will continue to fill and the wind strength will ease from the near gale force winds, to between 20-25 knots in by about 9am. Saturday racing will be governed by the filling low pressure with squally rain clouds throughout the day bringing testing conditions in both wind strength and direction. The winds will be shifty with the passing rain clouds but generally set from the south-west. At midday the weather looks set for a change with a shallow trough passing through bringing wet conditions but more crucial a veer in the wind to the south-west and a moderation of the wind strength to between 15-18 knots.

Over Saturday night into Sunday morning the low pressure centre will continue to fill but remain static in position. The isobaric surface shows a considerable moderation in wind strength with winds between 15-20 knots in the western end of the Solent and around 10-15 knots in central and eastern parts. Look out for the overnight south-westerly winds backing to a south easterly direction around the static low centre.
By midday a 15 knot south-easterly wind will be across the Solent with the wind set to back further as a low pressure systems forms in a trough over the Bay of Biscay pushing eastwards over France. The funnel affect between the Island and the mainland at the eastern side of the Solent will not be as significant due to the larger distance between the two. While the Isle of Wight will act as a wind barrier on the Island shore and cause the wind direction to be veered, so be aware!!

The day will be generally fine and dry with maximum temperatures of roughly 11°C. By early evening the winds will have increased slightly and be flowing from the east as the influence of the new low centre over the Bay of Biscay tracks across into France.