Looking ahead

From Rio Andy Rice give his views on what might happen now in the Volvo Ocean Race

While this is the closest round-the-world race ever witnessed, the fact remains that illbruck's grasp on the Volvo Ocean Race is beginning to look unbreakable. Even if she were to retire from the next leg and her nearest rival, Amer Sports One, were to win the race to Miami - they would still only be tied on points for first. John Kostecki and his gang could go and take a holiday for the next month.

Whilst Kostecki is always keen after any victory to play down their dominance, he was noticeably more relaxed and upbeat on his arrival in Rio. There was even a hint of celebration from Captain Sensible. The usually abstemious skipper was still drinking with the rest of his crew at 1 o'clock in the afternoon, 10 hours after they pulled into Marina da Gloria here in Rio in the middle of the night. Even he might be beginning to admit that this race is looking like a done deal.

For the first time, some of the other sailors are beginning to acknowledge that they are more in a fight for second place than making a realistic bid to topple illbruck. Tyco's Kevin Shoebridge and Assa Abloy's navigator Mark Rudiger believe said as much on their arrival yesterday.

But others remain bullish. Grant Dalton dismisses such defeatism as "silly talk". Neal McDonald still believes illbruck could get hit by a breakdown. It's the nature of this type of racing. After all, it happened to Chris Dickson aboard Tokio in the 93/94 Whitbread, albeit under a harsher time-based scoring system.

With only one long leg remaining - the transatlantic passage from Annapolis to La Rochelle - Dalton believes the nature of the race will change dramatically. Short course racing will make very different demands on the crews and could nullify some of illbruck's notable advantages, not least the crews' ability to drive the boat at break-neck speeds through the Southern Ocean without coming a cropper.

That said, John Kostecki is not exactly lacking in the short-course racing department himself. An Olympic silver medallist in the Soling back in 1988, he has since forged a formidable reputation in the big boat scene and the America's Cup. Dalton is understandably looking for some chinks in his enemy's armour, but the evidence suggests there are very few weaknesses in any department of the German team.

Amer Sports One, like djuice, Tyco and Assa, could so easily have finished second in this leg before the fickle Brazilian breezes dealt them a nasty hand. If he had done, then the points gap to illbruck would have been just four points. Then again, Dalton's detractors say he had it coming to him. They say he has been granted more than his fair share of luck in earlier parts of the race, notably Amer's miraculous leap from fifth to first after Ilha Trindade on leg 1 and their big climb on the approach to Hobart.

The wind gods, clearly anxious not to be seen to be biased, decided to blow against him this time. "I think we deserved to be not treated quite so hard in the last 12 hours, but this is yacht racing and shit happens," Dalts said afterwards. He remains confident that he can beat illbruck if, and only if, they start to get motoring. "We'd better bloody win the next leg, or come good, or we won't. We can win it yet, but we'd better start winning."