Skandia Cowes Week weather

Thedailysail's weather guru Libby Greenhalgh looks ahead to hurricane Alex's visit to the British Isles

With an absolutely gorgeously warm (possibly too hot) Cowes Week last year but a distinct lack wind, this year looks set provide a greater variety of conditions.

With an old hurricane (hurricane Alex) currently reeking havoc off the northeastern seaboard of the USA (see the satellite photo above showing Alex at 1815 GMT yesterday) and expected to trundle across the Atlantic decaying on his way, expect some fairly lively conditions in the UK for the start of next week. Conditions will then turn less less humid and a lighter easterly wind will dominate.

As at Cowes Week last year, this year will start off hot (temperatures possibly squeezing into the low 30sC) and with very little gradient wind. A weak ridge of high pressure will dominate the south of the UK on Saturday. With a variable direction you will most likely be waiting until 10am at least for the sea breeze to develop. This will mean the age old battle between the southeasterly initial sea breeze and the veer to the southwest by 2 or 3pm. The wind strength will be around 5 knots in the morning and increase 10 to 12 knots in the afternoon.

As we go through Saturday night celebrating the start of another Cowes week don’t forget that what was hurricane Alex is gradually moving in to the west of the British Isles. This low pressure system will dominate the weather for both Sunday and Monday, with the stronger winds on the Monday.

By Sunday morning the low is centred to the west of Ireland and maintains a east south easterly 15 knots occasional 18 knots of wind over the Solent throughout the day. The associated frontal system lies through the Irish Sea and is expected over the Solent midday Monday.
Luckily for us the low centre makes little progress further west and begins to move in a northerly direction. This will mean that the strongest winds which are normally found on the south west flank of the low centre will not effect the Solent. However the northward track of the low will mean the frontal system expected over the Solent at midday will be slow moving.

Monday will see the winds gradually veer from the east south east to the south as the low centre tracks northwards, and the wind speed will increase to a mean speed of 18 to 24 knots. The frontal system will provide some gusty conditions with prolonged period of rain. Lovely!

Tuesday the wind will have veered further to the prevailing direction south westerly direction of the UK. The winds have decreased to about 15 knots but with an unstable airmass expect showers to develop and gust up to 18 to 20 knots.

A second low centre develops in the SW approaches over Tuesday night. By Wednesday this low centre gradually moves westwards backing the wind from the SW to the SE with a mean speed of 10 12 knots. This low centre continues to dominate the rest of the week providing an easterly wind with wind speeds in the region 12 to 16 knots.

To keep up to date with forecasts check out:
www.metoffice.gov for your shipping forecast
www.eumetsat.fr for satellite images
www.islandweather.co.uk/ for real time wind data at Cowes

Saturday, 7 August 1200GMT



Sunday, 8 August 1200GMT



Monday, 9 August 1200GMT (in contrast the ECMWF charts for Monday show big breeze)



Tuesday, 10 August 1200GMT



Wednesday, 11 August 1200GMT



Thursday, 12 August 1200GMT