TJV forecast

French met and routing expert Gilles Chiorri gives his views on the weather

Wind vector chart for 1200GMT Sunday

While the Transat Jacques Vabre crew could don shorts and T-shirts instead of thermals and foul weather for the start today, the light conditions will make for an interesting tactical leg which could turn the race on its head.

The conditions look likely to remain light for some time, with an enormous high pressure system of 1040/1041mb hovering over the eastern side of the north Atlantic. Gilles Chiorri of French meteorologists meteo Consult says that the 'axle' of the high pressure system is currently lying right down the middle of the English Channel. Tactically he says there is the possibility of sailing north above this 'axle' to find westerly winds or south to get easterlies.

As whatever wind out there will be light Chiorri, himself an experienced ocean racer, says that it will pay to look for headwinds as this can increase the apparent wind strength. However he adds that by taking the northerly route to do this will add many miles to the route and that sailing around the north of the high pressure system would be a risky long term strategy as the system is slowly moving north. It could leave competitors becalmed for a lengthy period. So lolloping around in light following winds and taking the direct course may be the best solution.

"The current will be more dominant than the wind," Chiorri advises of the opening stages of the race. Several competitors were joking prior to the start about making dinner reservations in Cherbourg tonight. In the circumstances they will be doing well to get that far by closing time. All the crews have been preparing their anchors, ready to kedge in case they are becalmed when the tide turns at 1800 this evening. Matters are made all the worse as the tide is currently coming off springs and around the vicinity of the Cherbourg peninsula will be running at up to 5 knots.

Once the boats have rounded Ouessant Chiorri says there is more chance of them picking up some gradient wind. "They should sail quickly in the Bay of Biscay, but it will be not be a piece of cake."

Routers are currently watching a low pressure system that has formed off the west coast of Africa. This may have the effect of switching off the trade winds - as the Volvo and Mini Transat competitors recently found - and this could result in a very slow passage south down to the Doldrums for competitors.