Too close to call

Just eight miles separate the leading four boat in the Volvo Ocean Race

Never was there a closer battle in the Volvo Ocean Race or the Whitbread races that went before it. In just twenty four hours there have been three different race leaders. News Corp, in front just one day ago, has dropped to fourth. Temporary race leader from 18 hours ago, djuice has dropped back to fifth some 21 miles behind.

Most significantly, by the 0400 position report, illbruck had pulled into the lead, demonstrating the same blend of raw speed, tactical acumen and dogged determination that saw them winning the first leg. By sailing 438 miles over the last 24 hours, the leg one winners have edged out a two mile lead over Team SEB, with ASSA ABLOY now third. These three yachts are again ticking off 400 plus mile days in the new 30-knot breeze.

"The main reason for our northerly option is to keep into stronger breeze ahead of a low-pressure wave that is forecasted to develop in the vicinity of the Kerguelen tomorrow," said illbruck navigator Juan Villa. "If this happens, breeze should be lighter south of this wave, with winds building from the north."

Yet with just eight miles between the first four boats and more wind on the way it could all change in the next 24 hours. As the trough of low pressure which has slowed the fleet passes behind, the new breeze is establishing itself from the north west at around 30 knots.

As News Corp navigator Ross Field explained this morning, the effects of the low have now trickled down their southerly latitude. "The positions have changed again as the boats in the north make gains, but we are now in nearly equal pressure and the rot is stopping. The front is moving through and we're getting winds up to 30 knots from the north west, increasing in 12 hours to 40 knots plus."

Following yet more rig problems yesterday, no one was more surprised to be moving up the fleet than that SEB skipper, Gurra Krantz. "We hope and believe we have sorted out everything with the rig and look forward to the next firehouse session tomorrow and the following days," he says.

With plenty to prove after a disappointing performance in leg one, Gurra is clearly whipping his boat. With more wind coming he says only half joking, "We will fly Kevlar sails in the classic 110 degrees apparent wind angle mode in too much breeze. This, again, means face mask on, head down and just go."

"Despite the fact that we wanted to stay with the fleet we found ourselves alone here in the north until ASSA ABLOY and illbruck joined us,"says Krantz. " As the boats in the south are more spread out we can now say that we are with the majority of the fleet, in total three boats. All three boats are sailing high to get around the Kerguelen Island and in to the new wind from the north. Quite a bit of breeze is expected and the three of us will then be able to sail a lower course and more open wind angle than the boats in the south. "

Now nearly 500 miles behind, Amer Sports Too looks set to fall off the back of the weather system that is driving the leaders towards the finish at breakneck speed.

And what of Grant Dalton on Amer Sports One? Has he been too cautious, expecting the young guns to bust their boats? Or is the Frers design not as quick as he had hoped in the big breezes of the Southern Ocean? It could be any or indeed all of these, but for the time being at least, a combination of weed on the propeller strut and small navigational mistakes is holding the grey and red boat back.

"We have a big piece of kelp hanging onto our prop strut and all efforts getting it off have failed. The last possibility would be to stop and dive, cutting it away with a knife," reports navigator, Roger Nilson from the boat. It's tempting, he says to try and get it off but with the sea that is running it would be a very dangerous mission. "Some years ago we had a similar situation down here and had our diver under the boat. He was hit by the boat and also got tangled up with his safety line in the prop," says Nilson. "We got him out unconscious but alive. A very close call."

Nilson is also quite honest about the navigation. "Right now it looks like our decision going south of Kerguelen was wrong. A new low is expected to form just behind us, between Kerguelen and Heard Island. Hopefully, we will avoid being trapped in it's centre, but still bad for us as a strong north-northwesterly will greatly favour the boats to the north"

The leaders now have less than 1,800 miles to sail before they leave the Southern Ocean and round the official waypoint of Eclipse Island at the southwest tip of Australia. From there, it is 1,600 miles of racing through the Great Australian Bight before entering the renowned Bass Strait and finally the short 250-mile northerly sprint up to Sydney Harbour.

Page two.... position report