Finally a good forecast?

The Bloody Mary looks set to take place in the best conditions for years

This weekend the Bloody Mary Pursuit Race will take place on the reservoir at Queen Mary SC on the outskirts of southwest London. Traditionally this event commands an impressive turnout and this year is likely to be no different.

Although the Bloody Mary is no longer the huge event it once was – in its heyday in the 90s it attracted close to 500 boats – it continues to be an integral part of the winter racing circuit in the UK. Over the years a huge number of top sailors have taken line honours at the event and the trophy could well be viewed as a Who’s Who of UK dinghy racing.

The race forms a major part of the winter calendar for many, with sailors coming from all over the country to catch up with friends. Originally it was organised to coincide with the London Boat Show, so sailors visiting the show also had an excuse to bring their boats to London too. This is now much less important as, for many dinghy sailors, the Dinghy Show in March is the one that really interests them. To that end the relationship to the Boat Show, especially since it has moved to Excel in east London, is now all but lost, although the event is now big enough to be worth the trip to London on its own merit.

Back in 2003 the race changed significantly and now the slowest boat allowed to compete is the Topper. The reason for this decision is relatively simple; as fast boats were getting faster they were getting less and less time out on the water. The removal of anything slower than a Topper enables these faster boats to get a longer race. Of course this, in effect, makes the race more of an adult affair with traditional youth classes such as the Mirror or Cadet now unable to attend. However Queen Mary SC now also annually hosts a Junior Bloody Mary for these youth classes in February. The removal of these classes in recent years, it could be argued, is one of the main factors to have contributed to the drop in attendance.

Because handicap racing, particularly in the middle of winter is so weather dependant, many do not enter the Bloody Mary until they arrive at the venue, with a good number deciding whether they will compete or not on the day. The forecast obviously plays a crucial part in this decision. Three years ago the Bloody Mary was sailed in bitingly cold 30 knot winds, while the following year thee was five knots and snow while last year was yet another extremely light affair. The race being held in early January will always make the weather all or nothing, a good forecast of medium winds would be likely to see the event far exceeding last year’s entry of 212 boats. In any case it is notoriously hard to predict how many boats will be on the start line, although a safe estimate would be in the mid to high 200s, possibly breaking the 300 mark with a decent forecast.

Currently much of the southern UK is experiencing heavy winds of around 25-30 knots from the SSW. This system is due to pass over the country in the next couple of days, leaving moderate winds from the west and patchy sunshine for Saturday. Of course, weather wise, three days is a long time but currently the wind looks set to be from the west (250-260 degrees) at around 12-15 knots.

Assuming the wind does come from the west or southwest, here is the venue advice Jim Saltonstal gives in his series of Venue guides for TheDailySail (found here):

200-245 degrees: Another stable wind direction with more shifts over a wider arc as you get closer to the windward mark. There are some trees on the south-west shore which disturb the wind when you get near them. So use the shifts, more so as you get closer to the windward mark and don’t get to the laylines too soon.

245-290 degrees: Once again, as with the south-west wind, it is more about using the shifts up the middle of the beat, watching for increasing frequency and arc of the shifts as you get closer to the windward mark.

Assuming the wind is up in the mid-ranges we would expect to see some of the faster skiffs such as the International 14s, 49ers and RS800s performing well. The International Moth fleet are sending a large contingent this season and these perfect foiling conditions could well see one of them taking victory. Multiple Bloody Mary winner, Chips Howarth will be attending the event in his Fireball so if the breeze is on the high side – or probably even if not – expect to see him battling for a top position. If the breeze drops just a little bit, the contingent of 12 B14s would suddenly stand a good chance. Their switch to a carbon mast in addition to the settings tweaking that has come with the change, suddenly makes them look very threatening in the lighter – ten knots or so – breeze.