Shortage of carbon fibre

Robert Deaves looks at a major problem globally facing race boat, dinghy and spar manufacturers

Material	Tensile Strength (GPa)	Tensile Modulus (GPa)	Density (g/ccm)	Specific Strength (GPa)
Standard' carbon fibre	3.5	230	1.75	2
High tensile steel	1.3	210	7.87	0.17
Kevlar	3.6	60	1.44	2.5
E-glass	3.4	22	2.6	1.31

Carbon fibre/epoxy, through its attractive properties of high strength/modulus and light weight compared to regular GRP or traditional materials like steel or aluminium, is now a familiar feature of racing yacht and dinghy construction. Carbon fibre spars have over the last decade moved from solely the realms of race boats to cruising yachts, while America's Cup Class yachts, maxi-multihulls, Volvo Open 70s, Open 60s, 60ft trimarans, TP52s all the way down to Olympic Tornados are today built almost in their entirety using some form of carbon fibre construction.

Thus it comes with some alarm that a global shortage of carbon fibre has hit many manufacturers hard as they struggle to keep their stocks high enough to meet the ever increasing demand from boat owners. The shortages are forcing some manufacturers to streamline and prioritise their operations, and in some cases redesign their products using the limited materials that are available.

Concern was first voiced more than a year ago that shortages of carbon fibre were about to hit world stocks, but so far its effect has been limited and most customers are blissfully unaware that there is a problem. As one mast manufacturer commented, “I don’t think that the market realises how hard it has been to source materials.” But demand has been outstripping supply for several years and for some manufacturers, the situation has now reached critical point.



Carbon fibre

The majority of carbon fibre used in marine applications is PAN-based fibre, made from an acrylic fibre precursor called polyacrylonitrile (PAN) which is carbonised through exposure to extreme heat (ie <3,000degC) and subsequently oxidised gaining its familiar black colour. Many masts are also built from prepreg cloth - woven carbon fibres impregnated with uncured thermosetting resins which cure at temperatures higher than room temperature, typically 60-120degC. It is kept in refrigerators until it is used, to stop the resin curing prematurely. As such, manufacturers cannot order long term bulk supplies, but only a few months worth at a time, so cannot realistically stock up during periods of shortage.

The most commonly used carbon fibre in mast structures is standard modulus 12K 'tow' (ie: an aggregate bundle of 12,000 parallel carbon fibres). Other lightweight tow sizes used are 3K, 6K and 24K.

Carbon fibre is classified by their tensile modulus (ie their degree of stretch for a given load). The types are commonly known as:

- standard modulus - approx. 34Msi/230GPa modulus, cheapest, high strength and 'high' elongation before breaking (eg: T300, T700, TR30S, TR40, TR50S, 34-700)
- intermediate modulus - approx. 42Msi/294GPa modulus, highest strength, intermediate price (eg: MR40, MR50, T800H)
- high to ultra-high modulus -50Msi/350GPa and higher modulus, most expensive, brittle, but with reduced strength as modulus increases (eg: M40, M40J, M46J, HR40, HS40)



Table showing the tensile strength v modulus properties of carbon fibres made by the Japanese manufacturer Toray

There are also some pitch-based carbon fibres (ie where graphite threads are pulled out through a nozzle from hot fluid pitch). Generally these are low modulus, used in thermal transfer applications rather than in composite materials, but higher modulus pitch carbon has been used with mixed success in the French Open 60 and trimaran spars.

The shortage

There are many reasons for the present shortage in carbon fibre. Generally carbon fibre is being increasingly used in all manner of industries to replace steel, aluminium and fibreglass where lightness and strength are the principle requirements. Both the new Boeing 787 Dreamliner and Airbus A380 use carbon fibre to a greater extent than previous planes. Wind farms are also now taking a large chunk of the market - energy through wind production is increasing by 20 per cent each year - with most large rotor blades now being made of carbon fibre. There are also rumours of massive demand for a US defence project which is supposed to have tied up the manufacturing output of many composite sites worldwide, and even the exclusive output of one large manufacturer.

One of the UK’s leading carbon prepreg manufacturers had this to say: “The current worldwide shortage has been caused by demands from new applications such as the Boeing 787, Airbus A380, A400M and in the future, the A350, as well as industrial wind energy spars/blades, defence projects for the US military naval and UAV programs. Any stocks were sold in 2004. The market is hand to mouth at the moment and although Toray and Toho in particular have committed to additional capacity we do not expect the situation will ease until 2007. Generally it is more of a problem with 3K, 6K, 12K high strength PAN carbon grades. Price increases have already been incurred and are set to go up another 10 per cent before the problem eases. The marine industry generally will not be seen as a priority application and we are concerned about race series like the America's Cup.”

Equally important in the long term for suppliers is the ever increasing Far Eastern markets, especially that of China, which is increasing its use of composites at a phenomenal rate. In fact the world’s largest user of carbon-fibre - the United States - has been forecast to be overtaken by China as early as 2013.

The Mitsubishi Rayon Group is a leading manufacturer of PAN-based carbon fibres. In a statement issued in January 2005 the company said, “the carbon fibre market has been growing in the sports/recreational applications and space and aviation applications as well as in a range of other industrial sectors. This growth has resulted in a steady increase in demand. Now there is concern about imbalance between demand and supply. On the verge of expanded applications for pressure vessels and wind power generation, with the emergence of a new automobile-related market, carbon fibre manufacturers are urged to establish their production systems to ensure future stable supply.”

For many carbon fibre manufacturers, the whole issue of shortage seems to be a sensitive subject; many carbon suppliers refused to comment on the situation for this article, while mast builders are defensive and would only say that with adequate advance planning they are able to meet orders, although it is clear some are having problems.

A large carbon fibre producer with operations in Japan and the States refused to comment on particulars but would say: “The current shortage came about around 12 months ago and is due to increased demand from all market sectors not just the high volume users like the aerospace or the emerging wind energy market. We expect it to continue until the end of 2006 and possibly longer and all fibre types are now affected.”



How it will affect us

The shortage has become very serious for some products and predictions are that this situation will not improve for the next one or two years.

Because the marine industry is a very insignificant user of carbon fibre, it is not a high priority when it comes to supply. As an example, a very large mast manufacturer would use in the region of 10 to 20 tonnes annually - a minute percentage of the global consumption of over 22,000 tonnes. A small dinghy mast manufacturer or boatbuilder would use considerably less.

As a result the leisure industry, including mast and boat manufacturers - even the large ones - are put to the back of the queue, so that the larger more important industries are kept supplied. Sometimes this can help smaller manufacturers though, as they can use the leftovers from large runs because of their relatively small requirements.

A boat builder in New Zealand reported: “The situation will probably get worse in the short term, but will eventually get cheaper as anything in the market place does. The use of carbon in products has been steadily increasing each year and the manufacturers haven’t calculated for this correctly and haven’t kept up the manufacturing of carbon fibre itself. Demand for carbon is ever increasing and at a greater rate than production. Upping the production is not as easy as it sounds. It means you have to predict from a long way out how much you will need to be producing. Then you need to invest in plant and equipment and facilities to make it happen which all takes a lot of time and money, which then increases the cost of the end product.

“However, a lot of major manufacturers have been affected. All it means to them though is that they have to order their carbon materials months in advance and pay for it up front so they know that it secured for their projects, instead of just ordering it a few weeks ahead.”

One reasonably large UK based mast manufacturer states that the situation, “could not get much worse. Standard modulus 12K tow is pretty much non-existent. More expensive intermediate or high modulus 12K tow is also difficult to obtain. We are purchasing material as it becomes available, sometimes paying up to twice as much as we would have three months ago. The material often has different properties than our standard tow, so we have to redesign laminates and wind programs.”

A European dinghy mast builder had the same story to tell, “There are problems with supply. But with planning most things are possible. [Our old supplier] spoiled us by having a lot in stock, or was able to produce it quickly. Now this is not the case, so we are looking at other alternatives. Toray is the main fibre supplier, but we have tried to switch over to a new product, which is not quite as stiff, but in combination with a another material - for local alterations to the stiffness - we seem to be getting away with it. Until the carbon manufacturers increase capacity it will remain a problem. Also not just for the industries that we are accustomed to, but also the Chinese will have a big part in the whole equation. Everyone is being forced to plan better, and the guys with the money are buying cash in hand.”

Another UK based mast manufacturer is more optimistic: “We are not experiencing any problems at the moment, although there are plenty of people talking about fibre shortages. We source finished tubes from a variety of places, and there have been no supply problems thus far. We would estimate that price increases will probably filter through within six months, so it is more likely to affect the 2006 season.”

This is not just affecting the marine industry, but a wide range of sports and activities which have started to use carbon fibre in their equipment - fishing rods, the automotive industry, bicycles, sports equipment - basically any product using carbon fibre. It is interesting to note that the largest use of carbon fibre in the leisure industry worldwide is, believe it or not, the manufacture of golf clubs.


Cost increases

Although carbon fibre itself has been available since the 1950s, the expansion of the aerospace industry in the 1970s led to commercially viable carbon fibre for smaller manufacturers. However, it has only been relatively recently that it has become affordable and available enough to be widely used in sailing boats, the price of high strength carbon fibre plummetting from around £200/kg in the late 1960s to its current price of around £15-40/kg.

Depending on who you speak to, carbon fibre prices are set to rise by between 8 per cent and 20 per cent over the coming year. Some even put this figure as high as 50 per cent. However this does not necessarily reflect the price increase of the finished products, although undoubtedly the cost of masts and carbon items is going to increase.

A mast manufacturer in New Zealand commented: “There is a world-wide shortage of carbon. Our understanding is that Boeing and Airbus have bought contracts for 18 years of carbon supply. This has created the shortage and made it very hard for smaller manufacturers without volume purchase agreements. We’re okay at present but are experiencing delays in supply. Our suppliers have advised they are increasing fibre prices by 10 per cent in June.”

Finally, a relatively small European mast builder said, “We have had supply problems and I don’t think this will go away. Most of our problems are with the high modulus materials. Our real problem is getting all the requirements as needed. We use three different types of carbon in our masts and invariably our suppliers struggle to deliver the correct mix. Our problem is added to as the prepreg carbons we use have a limited shelf life.

“We have been given all sorts of explanations for the shortage including the Iraq war. I think a lot of material is being taken up in the aerospace industry and also there are many new emerging uses, and that demand is outstripping the availability of raw materials and processing facilities. Generally the fibre is made in Japan, USA and France and is woven by other companies, and we estimate that the prices of dry fibre will be up 20 per cent by the end of 2005 with prepregs going up by around 10-12 per cent.”

Solutions

Worldwide demand for PAN-based carbon fibre is expected to exceed 30,000 tonnes by 2007 - up from 22,000 tonnes in 2004. Most major carbon fibre manufacturers - including Zoltek (USA and Europe), Toho Tenax (Japan, USA, Germany), Hexcel (USA), and Mitsubishi Rayon/Grafil (Japan and USA) - have announced expansion plans. Toray Industries Inc (Japan) - the world’s largest producer of carbon fibre with nearly a 40 per cent share of the market - is undergoing its third expansion of production facilities in recent years to meet the forecast future annual growth rate of 10 per cent.

But investment on this scale is a major undertaking and many of the new streams - both proposed and under construction - will not come on line until 2006, if not sometime in 2007. Toray’s new plant in Japan is costing an estimated 25 billion Yen, but this will not be in production until January 2007.

Many carbon suppliers are still recouping investments from expansion during the last such shortage, so investment in further tooling up will be slow in coming. The current situation also follows on from a series of allegations of price fixing within the industry in the late 1990s with suits filed in the US against many of the world’s leading carbon fibre manufacturers.

Meanwhile mast makers are doing their best to fulfil orders, servicing customers as well as possible and working within the parameters set by the limited carbon availability.

Interestingly, the picture is similar with aluminium with soaring unit costs at a 10 year high - through increased base costs and extremely high demand from China - and increasing annually by up to 10 per cent. Although aluminium isn’t in short supply, the increased cost has led to a spate of thefts of aluminium masts and booms from dinghy parks as well as the theft of road signs to be sold as scrap - so look after your mast whether it is made of carbon or aluminium!

However, this glitch in the carbon-fibre industry may well prove to have beneficial effects for all of us in the long term as the manufacturers strive to find more economical and more environmentally friendly ways of producing this increasingly important material. The search for lower-cost carbon-fibre precursors is on and cheaper, ‘greener’ carbon-fibre may be with us sooner than we think.